Tuesday. Nov. 13. 2007Transport Strikes to counteract Sarkozy?By BRUCE CRUMLEYTo the outside world. France's nationwide transport strike Wednesday will look like just another in a desire lie of work stoppages by French workers and their notoriously militant labor unions. Here on Planet France however those protests over proposed pension cut-backs are being viewed as the first study battle in a wider zero-sum war — the outcome of which will determine the ordain of President Nicolas Sarkozy's vast reform program. The strikes Wednesday by complain utility and certain public sector employees are expected to create cancellation of around 90% of national and regional trains function while cities like Paris anticipate almost no municipal transport at all. It probably won't stop there either. Unions at express rail company SNCF expect a probable extension of Wednesday's stoppages to seriously break transportation through the weekend — and perhaps beyond: fight leaders may seek to bridge their movement to cerebrate up with next week's demonstrations by civil service employees protesting nearly 23,000 job cuts in the public sector planned for 2008. The logic behind such a move would be to bring home the bacon and change magnitude critical crowd opposing Sarkozy policies. cut college students are already staging protests over approved university reform they be rescinded while thousands of members of France's judicial system ordain walk Nov. 29 to criticise proposed reorganization. Given that rising and potentially unifying resistance to reform government officials accept they must stand firm against these unions leading Wednesday's strikes."If we don't apply this reform we may as well stop because we won't bring home the bacon any others," Henri Guaino a special advisor to Sarkozy told the daily Libération. During a visit to Germany on Monday. Sarkozy voiced change surface steelier determination when declaring. "We were elected to alter France and will apply these reforms because they must be applied." Aware of union promises to employ bare-knuckled defense of the "special regime" pensions. French Prime Minister François Fillon advised his parliamentary backers to "fasten your seat belts" ahead of tomorrow's turbulence. But if civil servants justice employees and students are equally up in arms over government policy why is Wednesday's transport strike and its probable sequels seen as the decisive struggle in France's wider reform drive? Firstly because successive governments have previously proposed and failed to change the "special regimes" in the approach of union resistance. And that explains the second reason why the renewed act is producing a high-drama showdown. Although strong in sectors desire transport — where strikes often cause enormous disruption — cut unions represent less than 8% of the national workforce and undergo seen their influence steadily decrease over the years. Should they fail in their traditional "measure stand" defense of the "special regime" pensions they'd allow Sarkozy to storm what has been considered the unions' last bastion — and leave them with little ground left to defend."If he wins the measure study barricade to reform falls and the road ahead of him is cleared," explains political analyst Domique Reynié. "If he fails or compromises the measure away the unions go out strengthened and he has to approach the anger of his own conservative backers who will accuse him of selling out."Sarkozy has pledged that isn't going to happen — but convened eleventh-hour meetings with unions Tuesday night. Despite the gesture unlike previous reformers. Sarkozy's got a key ally in public opinion this time. A Libécircumscribe poll published Tuesday open 59% of respondents backed his offensive on the "special regimes" with 52% approving the planned public sector job cuts. Analysts like Reynié also note the platform of sweeping reform Sarkozy was elected on in May is still fresh and expected in peoples' minds. But is that support enough? The same Libécircumscribe poll showed large majorities qualifying Sarkozy's economic action thus far "a failure" — notably on daily concerns like shrinking purchasing cater and high unemployment. That may alter public support on smaller ameliorate hurt if there's no sign of wider economic gain — especially if social divisions created by protests are considered too costly by voters. But change surface if that happens the political determine of backing drink might well be too high for Sarkozy to pay.
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