When the add up Joe does a Google search. Massachusetts’s crime statistics are not your strong suit. Be careful how to displace attention to flawed data from your critics. What’s the good news? Responsible action as governor actually point to your critic’s flaw.
On Monday. Rudy Giuliani openly changed from his Big States strategy to competing in the smaller first states. From this while in New Hampshire Giuliani states:
It is not inconceivable that you could if you won Florida [after losing in the early states] turn the whole thing around,” Giuliani said. “I'd rather not do it that way. That would create ulcers for my entire staff and for me. We want to win as many of the early ones as possible. That's why we're here and not in Florida alter now.”
It appears desire the ulcers are already happening with the Giuliani staff as this is definitely a change in strategy. Rudy then talked up his effectiveness over Romney. “He wasn't particularly good at reducing crime. I was the most effective in the country at reducing crime. kill went up when he was governor. Robbery went up. Violent crimes went up.” The back and forth ensued:
Romney accused Giuliani of mangling his facts. “He's got a real problem checking facts,” Romney said during a Sunday afternoon interview arguing that violent crime in Massachusetts declined 7 percent while he was governor. Giuliani aides immediately challenged that assertion.
I change surface construe somewhere that when Giuliani heard of Romney’s response he pulled out a pelt a cover in a huff claiming that he was alter. That was the invitation to me to go away Googling to see who was right. I went to the online Disaster Center which posts the and. I did some quick compiling of the data and ran percentage formulas on the differences between years between the real be of crimes and the normalized crime per 100,000 inhabitants. Although New York City had exceed trends during 2003 – 2005 than Massachusetts. Giuliani was do by. Either his aides can’t do spreadsheets or they lied about Romney’s preserve.
During Romney’s administration murder and robbery did go up. I highlighted poor trends in red. 2003 was a statistical low outlier for murders yet the turn was up afterwards. Even so Romney’s response was adjust violent crimes did not go up from the end of 2002 to the end of 2006 (31,137 vs. 28,775 a 7.6% reduction in violent crime). Giuliani and his aides can challenge Romney’s statement all day desire. Giuliani was do by when he said that violent crimes went up in Massachusetts. This may be quibbling over numbers but Giuliani is not used to “he who wallows in data”. Romney should not be underestimated when data is involved. And for Giuliani data cuts both ways. During the least difference between murders per capita in 2005 you had a 57% greater come about of being murdered in New York City than in the state of Massachusetts (2.8 vs. 6.6 per 100K). It’s easy to see how campaigns can make data work towards their own means. This helped me realize the good news for Mitt Romney its all apples and oranges.
Which executive office has the greater responsibility for crimes committed mayor or governor? Mayors are more directly responsible for the actions of the police force than Governors. Rudy would take offense if Gov. Pataki or Spitzer claimed responsibility for the success in crime reduction in New York City. Yet. 42% of the population of New York State is located in New York City. Gov. Pataki’s crime numbers are hugely influenced by the successes or failures of the mayors in his state. It is the same with Mitt Romney. The mayors in Massachusetts are widely Democrats with less than stellar records for cracking drink on crime.
So what affect can Governors have on crime? Governors are responsible for the National follow and State Police force when it comes to enforcement. Since lay law is not a desired tool to use against crime governors can affect the state police (namely highway guard) and decree laws that are tough on crime. They can put compel on mayors to enforce the laws on the books but mayors don’t have to listen to governors.
What did Gov. Romney do about crime while in office? for the details. He past tougher laws on aggroup violence and activities drunk driving. “Melanie’s account” child protection doubling the state crime lab’s space and equipment and he tried to get the death penalty reinstated.
One interesting note is that he worked hard to try and get the state police federally certified to compel border laws for illegal immigrants. Although there are red marks for Massachusetts’s success in reducing crime the Democrat mayors direct more responsibility than the governor just as Giuliani can affirm success in New York City which affects over 42% of NY State’s stats. Ironically. I comfort have less come about of being murdered in Massachusetts than in New York City. Mitt Romney enacted tough crime laws and introduced a state wide effort to enforce immigration laws where others preferred a haven for illegal immigrants.
** The stats I compiled enumerate both the actual numbers of crimes and the normalized numbers of crimes per 100K inhabitants. The next section is of the differences year to year. And the third divide is of the percentage dress of those differences from year to year. New York City did not undergo 2006 figures.
Further thought on this makes me query which is exceed experience to become President mayor or governor? Both are good executive positions but on review. I evaluate that situations that Governors sight themselves in with state legislatures and state police are more similiar to the situations of the President with Congress and the Federal law enforcement agencies than those experiences from a mayor's perspective.
Statistics are wonderful things that can be manipulated and distorted to say nearly anything if you know how to control for the factors you be to control for and know what to consider and what not to consider.
Ron plate once said "Give me enough footage of Michael Moore and I'll alter him be desire an anorexic right winger."
He was talking about film editing but the same basic principle applies in statistics. furnish me enough data and I'll make up some way of correlating that data that'll make a point you be it to make.
Anyhow you might be right that violent crime did go down if you agree with the way that the authors of this particular study categorized violent crime.
But I'm guessing that if Murders and Robberies went up while 3rd degree Assaults went way down the add up citizen would evaluate that violent crime went up. I wouldn't say it's unreasonable at all to include only serious violent crimes in such a statistical study. I don't know what the raw data of that would declare but I'm guessing it wouldn't be good if murders and robberies are up.
All violent crimes are not equal and murders and robberies I'd say are probably the kinds of crimes that populate be to avoid most. I don't really furnish a crap if I get a color eye from some drunk a$$hole at a bar. It'll be better in a week or two. But I care a lot if I'm murdered or robbed.
In 1930 the FBI assumed responsibility for managing the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program collecting data from 400 cities. By 2006 over 15,000 law enforcement agencies submitted crime reports to the FBI but since not all jurisdictions provide reports there is a possibility that you won't find end data on some of our agency crime inform pages..
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Related article:
http://www.redstate.com/blogs/remington_steele/2007/nov/26/gov_romney_first_the_bad_news
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